Posts Tagged ‘mobile’

Den fjerde mobile bølgen – og fremveksten av de neste trillioner dollar

Jeg fikk anbefalt en spennende rapport og konferanse av Tim Bajarin, en av skribentene jeg følger i min nyhetsleser. Siden det var om mobil har jeg brukt litt tid på den. Der er på førti sider og er ment som forberedelse til konferansen Mobile Future Forward. Jeg kan desverre ikke delta, men rapporten er svært interessant og er vel verdt å nevne.

Utdrag og grafikk er gjengitt med velvillig skriftlig tillatelse av Chertal Sharma. Han har fullstendig copyright til sine materialer og kopiering er ikke tillatt av hans innhold.

Her er velkomstordene av Chertal Sharma til mulige deltagere:

It is very clear to us that we are entering the ‘Connected Intelligence’ era. These two operative words are going to define the next phase of human evolution and are going to dramatically change every industry vertical from the ground up. Welcome to the Golden Age of Mobile.

Mobil IT leder opp til fremtidens nye syklus og vi en nå i begynnelsen på den fjerde bølgen, som er mobilt digitalt innhold og tjenester.

Her er punktene jeg merket meg i rapporten:

Mobil påvirker alt

Mobil synes som den eneste industrien (på mer en billion dollar), som kan endre alle de andre store industriene som reise, helse, energi og finans.

Trillion dollar businesses

If we look at the major industries that contribute to the global GDP (figure 1), mobile is the only one that impacts every other trillion dollar industries in ways that can fundamentally change how that vertical operates. There are new “mobile only” companies that are disrupting each of these verticals by redefining consumer engagement, productivity, and life on the go.

Størrelsen på den fjerde bølgen

Mobilt digitalt innhold og tjenester vil bli større enn både tale, SMS og data tilsammen, i løpet av de neste ti år.

Shared revenue

Databehandling-landskapet – Fra PC til post-PC

PC har på ti år gåttt fra å ha 90% av det globale markedet til 25% idag. Figuren viser overskudd hos hhv Microsoft, Google og Apple og illustrerer dette tydelig:

ecosystem revenue 2013

If we look at how the quarterly revenue base has changed for these players, the shift from PC to Post-PC is clear. Figure 2 illustrates the performance of these three leaders across the PC and Post-PC dimension. In 2008, Microsoft dominated the two with roughly 58% of the revenue. By 2013, the situation completely flipped and now Apple is ahead with 56% of the revenue base while Google’s share remarkably stayed constant (Figure 3).

Elementer i den fjerde bølgen

Rapporten snakker mye om kontekst, og mener med det sammenhengen brukeren er i, som lokasjon, temperatur, bevegelse, bilde, hva du har gjort før og hva du tenkes å skulle ville akkurat nå.

Sikkerhet og privatlivets fred, hevdes også å kunne bli viktig igjen. Noe som i dag synes som en selvfølgelighet etter alle etterretningsskandalene i USA i sommer.

The most critical layer that will drive user behavior and competitive battles will be that of context – the most valuable currency on the 4th wave…

…Thus the context layer forms the critical intelligence layer that enables the applications and services. Given the importance of context and data, capabilities to process enormous amounts of data in real-time and eke out valuable insights becomes an important aspect of what 4th wave is all about – designing services at an individual level. Security becomes very important when systems can put together a complete profile of the consumer in a matter of seconds using disparate data sources. Also, given that we will have multiple connected devices per individual, technologies that are able to tie the user-experiences across all the devices while preserving the context will be invaluable and players who play on all the connected dimensions will stand out.

Akseptere feil og kunsten om å lære

As we mentioned before, the managing growth on the 4th curve requires a different temperament that embraces failures, learns from it and moves on. One is not going to succeed in all initiatives or make an impact on all verticals. So, one has to experiment, formulate, execute, and move on, repeatedly. Companies who are able to create the culture that embraces failure will remain viable. Players who continue to work in traditional ways are unlikely to make a big impact over the course of the next decade.

Den fjerde bølgens påvirkning av økosystemet

Verdien i den fjerde bølgen vil skapes oppå IP-laget, dvs på toppen av mobile nettverk og lagring i nettskyen.

It is very clear from the discussion above, that the 4th wave will democratize the mobile revenue streams. The IP layer is a great leveler, once an application provider has access to it, it can create a direct relationship with the consumer and can create a platform and an ecosystem that has scale and longevity. The competitive landscape will be completely altered by the 4th wave.

…the number of players they can sell to will expand dramatically which means they will also have to adjust how they design products, establish relationships, and conform to revenue goals. Also, for the first time, software more than hardware will drive the revenue growth curve for the vendors.

Rapportens konklusjon

Rapporten hevder at det ikke vil være den industri som ikke vil endres totalt pga. mobil.

There will be hardly any vertical that is not transformed by the confluence of mobile broadband, cloud services, and applications. In fact, the very notion of computing has changed drastically. The use of tablets and smartphones instead of PCs has altered the computing ecosystem. Players and enterprises who aren’t gearing up for this enormous opportunity will get assimilated by the tides of consolidation.

“Det er det som blir bygget plattformene (Apple, Google) som er fremtiden, og ikke plattformene selv”, er min frie oversettelse av konkulsjonen:

Indeed the future of mobile is not just about the platform but rather what’s built on the platform. It is very clear that the winners will be defined by how they react to the 4th wave that will shape mobile industry’s next trillion dollars.

www.mobilefutureforward.com sitt inhold er bekyttet slik:
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